Crime: A National Audit

Crime Reduction Strategy

Crime: A National Audit

Despite recent falls, crime in England and Wales is high by international standards and high historically. Recorded crime doubled over the 1980s and early 1990s and is still much higher than it was twenty years ago. Demographic and economic factors may work against us over the next few years unless we take concerted action to drive crime down.

Recent crime trends

2. The underlying rate of recorded crime fell 1.4% in the year to March 1999. It was the sixth consecutive year in which recorded crime had fallen - and the first time in the 1990s that recorded violent crime fell. Since April 1997 total recorded crime has fallen by 9%, vehicle crime is down 14% and burglary by an encouraging 16%.

3. Recorded crime statistics cover an enormous range of offences from minor criminal damage to murder. As the British Crime Survey and other research has shown an increase in the number of crimes recorded by the police may or may not provide an accurate reflection of changes in the ‘true’ underlying rate of crime. For some types of ‘victim-reported’ crime (like domestic burglary or theft of a vehicle) where there are already high rates of reporting by the public, an increase or decrease in crimes reported to the police will generally be a clear and unambiguous sign that the underlying problem is getting worse or better. For some other types of offence, what might be termed ‘officer-reported’ crimes, like drugs possession or supply, changes in crime rates are as likely to reflect changes in police practice as they are to reflect changes in the number of these offences actually being committed. In these circumstances, an increase in this type of recorded crime category may actually be a good thing if it means that the local police are making a particular effort to take drug dealers out of circulation. There is a third and final category of crime, what might be called ‘under-reported’ crime, where an increase in crime rates may also be a positive rather than a negative achievement. This is particularly true of offences like domestic violence and racial crimes where victims have traditionally been reluctant to come forward but where significant improvements in police responsiveness are now encouraging more and more people to report their experiences and seek redress.

Longer term trends

4. Despite recent falls however, recorded crime is not yet back to early 1980s levels, and the long term trend since 1918 shows that recorded crime has risen on average by about 5% a year.

International comparisons

5. What is more, crime in this country is high by international standards. International comparisons of recorded crime figures show that we have the highest recorded rates for domestic burglary and motor vehicle theft.

Crimes¹ per 100,000 population recorded by the police

Domestic burglary²	1998	1997	1996	1995	1994	% change 1997-98
England & Wales³	903	958	1,111	1,219	1,262	-6
U.S.A.	863	911	928	961	1,005	-5
Scotland⁴	743	719	797	874	1,037	3
France	353	364	402	405	420	-3
Germany	203	209	239	257	257	-3
Finland	199	202	200	223	249	-1

¹ Definition of offences may vary between countries due to legal differences and statistical recording methods; comparisons may be effected by the differences. For example, there are differences in the point at which an offence is measured. In England and Wales, it is recorded when the offence is reported to the police but in some other countries, this may not be until a suspect is identified or the papers forwarded to the prosecutor. For these reasons, absolute comparisons of the figures can be misleading.
² Gaining access to a dwelling by the use of force to steal goods.
³ By financial year e.g. 1994 = April 1994 to March 1995
⁴ Includes burglary in non-domestic premises (e.g. shop, garage, hotel)

Crime projections

6. Statistical models of property crime show that rates of property crime can be powerfully influenced by whether the number of young men in a society is rising or falling and by economic factors like consumption expenditure. With the number of young men - the age group we know is most likely to get involved in crime - set to rise by 4% over the next 3 years, crime could also be expected to rise - unless we act now. Encouragingly, the most recent set of crime figures were lower than would have been projected by the model. Our biggest challenge is to continue to drive crime down.

Patterns of crime

7. Though every crime causes hurt and inconvenience, two types of offence loom particularly large in the statistics – vehicle crime (theft of and from cars and other vehicles) and burglary. These two crimes alone impose enormous costs both financial and emotional and are the offences which people worry about most of all. The 1998 British Crime Survey estimated that in burglaries with a loss, the average value of property stolen was £1,416. In the chapters which follow, we set out the concrete steps we are taking to make real inroads into reducing burglary and vehicle crime.

Notifiable offences recorded by the police 12 months ending March 1999

Pie chart showing notifiable offences recorded by the police 12 months ending March 1999

Risk of crime

8. Not all people are equally at risk of crime. Some groups are far more likely to suffer than others, and all too often it is those who can least afford to, who get hit hardest. There is clear evidence from the British Crime Survey that the households most at risk of burglary include single parents living with their children, young households and those in inner cities or areas with high physical disorder. The chapters which follow detail how we targeting our efforts at those who are most at risk of crime, particularly from burglary, to the areas where crime is prevalent and at the communities which suffer from disorder or anti-social behaviour.

Relative risk of burglary in 1997, measured by the British Crime Survey

Offenders

9. Just as victimisation is unevenly distributed, so too is the propensity to offend. Males for example are more likely to offend than females and it is young males in particular that impose a disproportionate burden on our criminal justice system. Forty per cent of offenders cautioned or convicted for an indictable offence in 1997 were under 21. The peak age of offenders convicted or cautioned was under 18 for males and females in 1997. If we are serious about reducing crime then right at the heart of our strategy must be a programme for tackling youth crime and dealing effectively with young offenders.

10. The link between drugs and offending has also become quite clear. Around 30% of arrestees say that they are currently dependent on one or more drugs. Research in five pilot areas showed that half of all shoplifting suspects tested positive for opiates. It has been estimated that the proceeds of almost a third of acquisitive crime is geared to the purchase of heroin or crack cocaine. Breaking the link between drug misuse and offending is therefore another central plank of the strategy which follows.