Seasonality in recorded crime: preliminary findings
Monthly recorded crime data, like many other time series, are affected by short-term variations associated with the time of year. This report identifies which crime types are seasonal and to what extent. This should help crime reduction agencies to develop their policies and strategies for managing varying crime levels within the year.
Title: Seasonality in recorded crime: preliminary findings
Authors: RDS
Number of pages: 13
Date published: February 2007
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The data and methodology
Recorded crime data from all 43 police forces in England and Wales are routinely collected by the Home Office. The following three types of data were analysed:
- quarterly national data spanning April 1995 to March 2000;
- monthly national data spanning April 2000 to March 2005; and
- monthly data for a selection of Crime and Disorder Reduction Partnerships (CDRPs) spanning April 2000 to March 2005.
The findings focus mainly on the monthly time series for April 2000 to March 2005 and only comment on the quarterly analysis where the results appear to be contradictory.
Summary
25 of the 29 crime types tested showed evidence of seasonal patterns (statistically significant at the p0.01 level). Each crime shows a different seasonal pattern but they can be grouped into three main themes:
- peaks in the summer months and troughs in the winter months;eg comon assault and rape of female.
- peaks in the winter months and troughs in the summer months; eg theft of motor vehicle and robbery of business property
- regular peaks and troughs each year which are not led by the seasons. eg dangerous driving and possession of weapons
5 of the 20 CDRPs that were tested showed evidence of seasonality in the crime type for which they were tested. Further detail is given in the findings section of this report.
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Last update: Friday, March 02, 2007