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Crime Reduction Toolkits

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Change over time and seasonality

Exploring the change of crime over a long time period or across seasons requires the aggregation of crime or disorder data into months or weeks. From this a graph can be drawn showing the change in these events over these time periods.

The effects of seasonality and fluctuations across time can be explored by analysing the coefficients of variability. This method can be applied in standard desktop software such as Microsoft Excel.

  • Calculate the mean of your aggregate totals (e.g. the standard deviation of monthly totals).

  • Calculate the standard deviation of your aggregate totals (e.g. the standard deviation of monthly totals).

  • Calculate the coefficient of variability (standard deviation/mean)

Areas with high coefficients of variability are those where the crime or disorder activity fluctuates a great deal. Areas with low coefficients of variability are where the crime or disorder activity is constant over time.

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