Monitoring and Evaluation

Before/after analysis.

Effective monitoring helps to identify what types of crime and disorder reduction programs work, and which do not, plus help to identify the possible requirement for extra resources to help make them work, or a rethink in their implementation strategy. The lessons learnt through monitoring can then be used to help in the design of future crime and disorder reduction initiatives, particularly for deploying programs that have been effective to other areas of need.

Monitoring the effect of crime and disorder reduction initiatives within focus areas can at the simple level require analysing if crime or disorder has increased or decreased. More detailed analysis will include,

• where has there been change

• has there been change in the nature of the crime or disorder activity. This will include analysing if the reduction of one crime type has been offset by an increase in a different crime type, changes in offending behaviour (e.g. time of day, day of week), and changes in the type of victims

• the impact of the conviction of certain offenders who previously were active within the focus area.

• a field survey that reports on any change in public attitudes, victimisation or safety issues.

The use of hotspot maps showing crime levels before and crimes level after the initiative can be a very effective tool for demonstrating any change that has occurred.

Evaluation

The partnership will be required to review what has taken place after the implementation of crime and disorder reduction resources to a focus area. Items that require examination include,

• What reduction tactics have been implemented?

• What has changed?

• What is self sustaining?

• What needs support?

• What further problems are identified?

• Lessons learned that are transferable

• Can the lessons learnt and intelligence gathered lead to the development of an early warning system, predicting future events?

• What strategic crime and disorder reduction options can be employed to better understand local problems and sustain reduction.

Displacement.

Any targeted crime and disorder reduction initiative needs to be monitored for any effects it may have in the displacement of crime. The geographic displacement of crime and disorder is best analysed through using a combination of table reports that describe how crime has changed within areas of interests, and maps that show this change.

Monitoring crime reduction initiatives in focus areas should consider the use of ‘displacement zones’. Two types of displacement zones can be used:

• Neighbouring displacement zones – these cover the area immediately outside the focus area and can be represented as concentric buffers that radiate from the focus area.

• Zones of opportunity - these are zones that have similar characteristics to the focus area. These are set up to monitor potential displacement to areas not covered by a crime and disorder reduction initiative but which present similar opportunities to offend (e.g. for focus areas covering town centres, this zone of opportunity will be an area that has a concentration of retail outlets, pubs, bars and nightclubs).

Often the boundaries of both types of displacement zones rely upon empirical analysis of the extent of the central business district, natural physical barriers such as railway lines, and historical distributions of crime. For neighbourhood displacement zones, use radiating buffers from the focus area, but which are designed to be sensitive to the natural physical environment. Displacement zones should also consider geographic boundary areas of responsibility or management (e.g. beats, sectors and wards) in their design, particularly if these type of people make up the audience who wish to receive monitoring results. Monitoring and reporting precise to areas of responsibility can help direct clearer strategies and action plans for continual crime and disorder reduction resource targeting.

Displacement to other crime or disorder types should also be monitored.