Simple Analysing of Patterns of Crime and Disorder

Incidents, victims and offenders - Offenders do not always commit crime in their own neighbourhoods. Individuals are often victimised away from their homes. Incidents can occur in locations where neither victims nor offenders live. it is helpful to map patterns of, and relationships between incidents, victims and offenders. This will make it easier to understand how crime patterns are produced and where interventions are most likely to yield significant results. There will be varying incident, victim and offender patterns according to area and crime type. Moreover, geographical patterns of offending will not necessarily reflect pre-determined boundaries

Incidence, prevalence and concentration - Crime patterns can usefully be decomposed into incidence, prevalence and concentration. Incidence describes the number of incidents in a given area. prevalence describes the number of victims in a given area. Concentration describes the average number of incidents per victim in a given area. The three terms are clearly related: prevalence multiplied by concentration gives us incidence. High levels of concentration (now very often found) suggest ways of targeting resources on the most vulnerable, which is also likely to produce significant reductions in overall crime rates.

Time, place and movement - Offences occur when likely offenders meet suitable targets in a conducive environment without anyone else there effectively to defend the victim, or dissuade the offender. Their patterning is, thus, a function of the spatio-temporal distribution and movement of offenders, victims and those in a position to stand between them. Prevention occurs through keeping likely offenders and victims apart, allocating protection where and when it is most needed, making victims less attractive to prospective offenders, or by lessening offender motivation or predisposition. Analysis of incident patterns by reference to time, place and movement of victim and offender will help partnerships decide what will have most purchase on problems, and where, when, and in relation to whom it is most needed.

Households, persons and areas - Raw crime figures need to be converted to standardised rates to compare levels of crime problem. Different offences require differing denominators. Assaults may be looked at in terms of number per 1,000 individuals. Domestic burglary can be measured in terms of number per 1,000 households. Commercial burglary is better looked at in terms of number per 1,000 businesses (though identifying the number of businesses in an area can be very difficult). Car crimes may be best looked at in terms of number per hectare.

Signs, sights and measurements - 'Unobtrusive measures' may be useful in analysing patterns of incivility and frequently unreported or unrecorded crime: heaps of toughened glass can show where cars have been broken into; rates in infective hepatitis can indicate amounts of drug use by injection; A&E visits for stabbings and 'falls' can act as an indicator for violence; rates of replacement windows and doors in schools, LA homes etc. can be an indicator of burglary and criminal damage; the location and contents of rubbish bins will give an indication of drinking patterns etc. \moreover, soft data - notably from beat officers with close contact with their area - can be invaluable for filling out recorded crime data; they will often be sensitive to changes in local communities and the nature and pattern of emerging problems.

Criminals, targets and crime methods - Knowing the attributes of high-rate offenders and victims can help target preventative measures. In the case of offenders: sex, age, address, family background, experience of care, offending careers, drug-taking habits, crime method and whether mentally disordered are all important. in the case of individual and household victims: sex, age, address, household composition, time and place of incident, losses incurred and crime method can all be informative. In the case of institutional/organisational victim: type of organisation or business size, address, losses, time and place of incident, and crime method can all be useful. These data need to be kept in standardised forms if informative aggregate crime and disorder patterns are to be analysed.

Source: Auditing crime and disorder: guidance for local partnerships.  Crime Detection and prevention Series 91 Michael Hough & Nick Tilley. 1998

Full report: http://www.homeoffice.gov.uk/rds/prgpdfs/fcdps91.pdf

Summary report: http://www.homeoffice.gov.uk/rds/prgpdfs/cdp91bf.pdf

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Using software to do analysis
Doing analysis
Describing categorical data: Frequencies & spreads
Moving beyond describing: Hypotheses & inferences
Cross-tabulations
Testing the significance of the data
Describing continuous data
Moving beyond describing with continuous data: Tests

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