Patterns of Offending
All audits should include a basic analysis of offenders so that
partnerships can target their resources more effectively. With the
proper resources, it is also possible to undertake more advanced
analysis that considers issues such as travel to crime patterns and
victim/offender relationship analysis.
Other Toolkits in the series provide information on patterns of
offending for individual areas of crime and criminality http://www.crimereduction.gov.uk/toolkits/index.htm
Profiling offenders
A basic profile of offenders might look at offenders committing
particular crimes or groups of similar crimes and profiling factors
such as:
Travel to Crime Patterns
More sophisticated analysis of patterns of offending is possible
using a GIS system. In particular it would be useful to examine
travel to crime patterns.
The evidence
It is often assumed that as travel has become easier, offenders
must be taking advantage of this fact to travel further to commit
crimes. However, recent research by the Home Office (2000b: v) shows
that:
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The vast majority of offender movements are relatively short
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Much travel associated with crime is not primarily driven by
plans to offend but appears to be much more dependent upon
opportunities presenting themselves during normal routines
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When offenders do travel to offend it is overwhelmingly local
in nature
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Even when longer-range travel is involved in offending
elsewhere it is mainly in places which have strong traditional
connections with the offender’s home location e.g. a place the
offender goes to shop
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There was little evidence that offenders travelling to offend
was significantly increasing compared with the past of that new
travel opportunities were changing traditional travel patterns
used by offenders.
How to do it and what to look for
Police recorded crime data on offence location and offender’s
home addresses can be geo-coded and mapped using a GIS system. These
data can then be linked using an offence’s unique crime number.
Useful analysis that can be done using this mapped data includes:
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Average distance travelled for different offence types and
different offender groups
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Travel to offend within, out of and into distinct
neighbourhoods and districts
N.B. Analysis of police recorded offence and offender data will
always give the appearance that a force is net importer of offenders
because the data will include information about offences committed
in the force area by those living elsewhere, but not about those
living in the force area who commit offences elsewhere.
Relationship between victim & offender
Wiles and Costello's 2000 Home Office study of travel to crime
patterns found that in more affluent areas victim travel is at least
as important as offender travel, with a much higher proportion of
victimisation taking place outside the area of residence than in
less affluent areas.
Analysis of the relationship between victims and offenders can be
used to shape appropriate crime management strategies. For instance
in an area where offenders are coming into the area to commit crime
methods of monitoring the actions of outsiders (such as
Neighbourhood Watch) might be appropriate. At the same time,
resident’s cars are more vulnerable when they leave their
neighbourhood and mapping where they park could be used to target
protective strategies (The road to nowhere: The evidence for
travelling criminals, P Wiles & A Costello, Home Office 2000) www.homeoffice.gov.uk/prgpubs/brfn0400.pdf
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