Introduction

Modelling trends in crime, developing models to explain changes in crime and examining the way trends might develop in the future is complex and resource intensive. It may well be beyond the capabilities of most local partnerships. However, there are a number of ways in which local partnerships can usefully look at future trends in crime and disorder when undertaking crime and disorder audits:

• Look at local crime trend analysis

• Look at macro-level research predicting crime trends

• Think about new technology

A distinction should be made between predicting trends in crime and forecasting future crime levels:

• A forecast of future crime levels would require a model that took account of all relevant social, demographic and economic factors that are causes of crime, as well as the likely effect of current and future policy initiatives likely to impact upon crime. As such, it is conceptually and practically impossible to provide forecasts with any degree of accuracy.

• Predictions in future crime trends indicate the likely effect of specific factors that have been shown to have a relationship with crime, assuming that no other factors come into play. They do not take into account the impact of other factors that have a relationship with crime.

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