Economics and Demographics

Home Office research LINK over the last 10 years has attempted to model historical trends in the level of recorded property crime in England and Wales. The main economic findings of a 1990 study were that:

• In the short-term the economic factor associated with rates of crime is ‘per-capita real personal consumption’. This is the amount that each person in the country spends, on average, in any year. When personal consumption increases, property crime tends to grow relatively slowly or even fall. When personal consumption grows more slowly or falls, property crime grows more rapidly. This is thought to be because upturns in economic growth have the most immediate effect on those who are economically marginalised and provide an increased capacity for the lawful acquisition of goods, thereby reducing the temptation of unlawful acquisition through theft (Field 2000).

• In the longer-term trends in property crime rise with rises in personal consumption so that trends in theft and burglary are linked to the stock of crime opportunities as measured by the stock of consumer goods. For every one per cent increase in this stock, burglary and theft increase by around two per cent. (Home Office 1999) LINK

The main demographic finding was that:

• Trends in thefts and burglaries were associated with the number of young males. For every one per cent increase in the number of young males aged 15 to 20, burglary and theft increases by about one per cent. (Home Office 1999) LINK

This research has been been used as the basis for predicting future trends in property crime (Home Office 1999) LINK. The models used for modelling historical trends in crime were updated and modified to try to project how trends in burglary and theft might change. The projections made were not forecasts because they only examined the likely effect of the specific economic and demographic trends referred to above.

The Association of British Insurers (2000) LINK SPECIFIC suggests several implications:

• The increase in the elderly population may provide an increase in vulnerability to criminal attack

• An older population will mean that there will be fewer people in the peak offending group (young males). However, the reduction in the relative size of the peak offending group may be outweighed by an increase in the ‘vulnerable’ population most likely to offend.

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