Overview of Risk of Offending
There has been limited statistical evidence to date specifically focused upon
the characteristics of Persistent Young Offenders, aged 10 to 17. However, research
over recent years has been able to provide evidence of risk factors , which, if present
in a young person’s life, increase the likelihood of their becoming involved in offending.
(For general information of the scale, trends & international comparisons see ‘Report
of Policy Action Team 12: Young People’ http://www.cabinet-office.gov.uk/seu/2000/pat12/01.htm
These risk factors are set out in the table below:
|
Family
|
|
|
School
|
-
Lack of commitment to school (truancy/exclusions)
-
Disruptive behaviour (including bullying, aggressive & hyperactive)
-
Low achievement
-
School disorganisation
|
|
Individual/Peer
|
-
Alienation & lack of social commitment
-
Early involvement in problem behaviour
-
Peer involvement in problem behaviour
-
High proportion of unsupervised time spent with peers
|
|
Early adulthood
|
|
|
Community
|
|
Flood et al analysis of the 1998/99 Youth Lifestyles Survey http://www.homeoffice.gov.uk/rds/pdfs/hors209.pdf
found the following in relation to risk factors associated with persistent or serious
offending of 12-17 year old boys:
Using drugs in the last year was the strongest predictor of persistent or serious
offending: the odds of offending were nearly five times higher than for non-drug users
Boys who were disaffected from school or were persistent truants had a higher
risk of persistent or serious offending
Those young people who were less highly supervised by their parents or who
friends or acquaintances who had been in trouble with the police were more at risk
Boys who hung around in public places were more likely to be offenders that
those who did not, even taking other factors into account
The following table shows, in order, the most predictive risk factors of 12-17
year old persistent/serious offenders
|
Ordered risk factors predicting serious
or persistent offending: 12 to 17 year old males. |
| |
Percentage that
exhibited the factor |
| |
Serious/persistent
offenders |
Total
YLS sample |
| Drug user (has used drugs in the
last year) |
52 |
18 |
| Disaffected from school |
36 |
15 |
| Hanging around in public places |
80 |
52 |
| Delinquent friends or
acquaintances |
64 |
37 |
| Poor parental supervision |
47 |
22 |
| Persistent truant (at least once
a month) |
16 |
6 |
Because of the small number of persistent or serious female offenders in the survey,
detailed analysis was not deemed to be appropriate for females. However the indications
are that risk factors which are important for males generally apply to females.
Flood-Page, C., Campbell, S., Harrington, V. & Miller J. (2000)
Youth Crime: Findings from the 1998/99
Youth Lifestyles Survey Home Office Research Study 209. Home Office:
London.
http://www.homeoffice.gov.uk/rds/pdfs/hors209.pdf
For a detailed analysis on the extent to which permanent
exclusions from schools had on offending careers of 343 young people
see Berridge, D. et al, The Effects of Permanent Exclusions from
School on the Offending Careers of Young People. RDS Home Office
Occasional Paper 71. http://www.homeoffice.gov.uk/rds/pdfs/occ71-exclusion.pdf
|
